Incorporating stakeholder decision support needs into an integrated regional Earth system model

A new modeling effort exploring the opportunities, constraints, and interactions between mitigation and adaptation at regional scale is utilizing stakeholder engagement in an innovative approach to guide model development and demonstration, including uncertainty characterization, to effectively inform regional decision making. This project, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), employs structured stakeholder interactions and literature reviews to identify the most relevant adaptation and mitigation alternatives and decision criteria for each regional application of the framework. The information is used to identify important model capabilities and to provide a focus for numerical experiments. This paper presents the stakeholder research results from the first iRESM pilot region. The pilot region includes the Great Lakes Basin in the Midwest portion of the United States as well as other contiguous states. This geographic area (14 states in total) permits cohesive modeling of hydrologic systems while also providing strong gradients in climate, demography, land cover/land use, and energy supply and demand. The results from the stakeholder research indicate that, for this region, iRESM should prioritize addressing adaptation alternatives in the water resources, urban infrastructure, and agriculture sectors, including water conservation, expanded water quality monitoring, altered reservoir releases, lowered water intakes, urban infrastructure upgrades, increased electric power reserves in urban areas, and land use management/crop selection changes. For mitigation in this region, the stakeholder research implies that iRESM should focus on policies affecting the penetration of renewable energy technologies, and the costs and effectiveness of energy efficiency, bioenergy production, wind energy, and carbon capture and sequestration.     

基于农村信用体系建设的涉农经济组织和农户信用提升研究

我国涉农经济组织和农户的信用存在一些难以规避的缺陷,导致农业贷款难的困境。本文从涉农经济组织和农户信用道德建设,信用制度与法律建设,产权制度,信用环境,信用标准及信用等级评定,信用组织创新,征信和信用担保中介服务市场,农村信用管理等八个方面阐述了农村信用体系建设的基本思路,并讨论了涉农经济组织和农户的信用提升问题。     

城市再生水景观利用水华识别和预警方法探讨

城市再生水景观回用的主要问题是水体富营养化导致水华的暴发。为了抑制藻类的大规模生长,需要提前采取预防措施,以便将有可能爆发水华的藻类及时杀死或除去。目前,人们已经对景观水体中常见藻类的生长规律做了深入的研究,发现水体中藻数量(藻密度)的多少与水体的pH值和DO值的变化有密切而相对稳定的关系。通过在线实时监控pH值和DO值,找到△pH、△DO与藻类生长之间的关系,并结合pH、DO、温度、正磷酸盐和总氮等指标,实现实时识别和预测水华爆发的目的。     

Ammonium-dependent regulation of aerobic methane-consuming bacteria in landfill cover soil by leachate irrigation

The impacts of landfill leachate irrigation on methane oxidation activities and methane-consuming bacteria populations were studied by incubation of landfill cover soils with leachate and (NH₄)₂SO₄ solution at different ammonium concentrations. The community structures and abundances of methane-oxidizing bacteria (MOB) and ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) were examined by PCRDGGE and real-time PCR. Compared with the pure (NH₄)₂SO₄ solution, leachate addition was found to have a positive effect on methane oxidation activity. In terms of the irrigation amount, ammonium in leachate was responsible for the actual inhibition of leachate. The extent of inhibitory effect mainly depended on its ammonium concentration. The suppression of the predominant methaneconsuming bacteria, type I MOB, was responsible for the decreased methane oxidation activity by ammonium inhibition. Methaneconsuming bacteria responded diversely in abundance to ammonium. The abundance of type I MOB decreased by fivefold; type II MOB showed stimulation response of fivefold magnification upon the first addition but lessened to be lower than the original level after the second addition; the amount of AOB was stimulated to increase for 20-30 times gradually. Accumulated nitrate from nitrification strengthened the ammonium inhibition on type I and type II MOB, as a result, repetitive irrigation was unfavorable for methane oxidation.     

The role of body size versus growth on the decision to migrate: a case study with Salmo trutta

In a population exhibiting partial migration (i.e. migration and residency tactics occur in the same population), the mechanisms underlying the tactical choice are still unclear. Empirical studies have highlighted a variety of factors that could influence the coexistence of resident and migratory individuals, with growth and body size considered to be key factors in the decision to migrate. Most studies suffer from at least one of the two following caveats: (1) survival and capture probabilities are not taken into account in the data analysis, and (2) body size is often used as a proxy for individual growth. We performed a capture–mark–recapture experiment to study partial migration among juvenile brown trout Salmo trutta at the end of their first year, when a portion of the population emigrate from the natal stream while others choose residency tactic. Bayesian multistate capture–recapture models accounting for survival and recaptures probabilities were used to investigate the relative role of body size and individual growth on survival and migration probabilities. Our results show that, despite an apparent effect of both size and growth on migration, growth is the better integrative parameter and acts directly on migration probability whereas body size acts more strongly on survival. Consequently, we recommend caution if size is used as a proxy for growth when studying the factors that drive partial migration in juvenile salmonid species.     

聚合铝铁对A2/O系统 EPS及生物絮凝性能的影响

通过向实验室构建的A2/O模型好氧池末端投加聚合铝铁(PAFC)来强化系统的生物除磷,使得出水总磷达到《城市污水处理厂污染物排放标准GB 18918-2002》中的一级A标准,并重点分析投加的PAFC对A2/O系统中活性污泥胞外聚合物(EPS)和活性污泥生物絮凝性能的影响.结果表明,随着PAFC投药量的增加,A2/O系统活性污泥EPS总量变化不大,但EPS组分中蛋白/多糖含量的比值逐渐降低,由投药前的3.30降低至投药后的2.30;EPS中金属离子含量逐渐增加,在厌氧-缺氧-好氧的运行周期内,各处理单元污泥的EPS中金属铝离子含量增加.投加PAFC后,活性污泥颗粒变大,二沉池出水的Zeta电位明显降低,由投药前-15.83 mV降低至-21.20 mV,污泥产量增加.因此,适量投加PAFC后,生物絮凝性能得到改善,出水中悬浊颗粒减少,出水水质变好.     

基于视频轨迹参数的边缘率减速标线驾驶行为效果评价方法

为探究边缘率减速标线对驾驶行为与交通安全的作用效果,提出了基于监控视频提取轨迹参数的实证评价方法.采用背景差法和透视变换方法对监控视频进行车辆目标提取和轨迹处理,进而提取车辆速度、加速度、车头时距、车头间距和车道偏移等行车参数;通过参数统计分析,边缘率减速标线对车速控制、跟车距离保持和车道保持都有不同程度的控制效果,但使纵向舒适性变差;为了综合评价其效果,基于层次分析法建立了边缘率标线的综合控制效果评价模型,从有效性、安全性和舒适性3个维度对减速标线进行综合评价.该方法和模型还可用于评价其他不同设计参数的减速标线.     

基于综合指数的湖北省耕地质量变化分析

在综合界定耕地质量内涵的基础上,构建了耕地质量变化的评价指标体系和评估模型,以此为基础,对1995—2005年湖北省耕地质量的动态变化进行了分析。研究表明:湖北省耕地综合质量变化总体呈现波动上升趋势,但体现耕地综合质量的耕地本底质量、经济质量与生态质量变化差异显著。耕地本底质量自20世纪90年代中期到本世纪初变化平缓,整体波动较小;耕地经济质量在1995—1999年间提升迅速,2000年后基本保持平稳,但最近几年有波动下降的趋势;耕地生态质量自20世纪90年代中期以来呈缓慢下降趋势,近几年下降趋势有所缓和;耕地综合质量在1999年之前平稳上升,之后又呈现缓慢下降趋势。影响湖北省耕地综合质量变化的主导因子是耕地的经济质量与生态质量的波动,这与不同时期湖北省社会经济与资源环境发展的侧重有关,而耕地的本底质量变化对耕地综合质量变化的影响较小。研究采用的综合指数法能较全面地体现区域耕地质量变化的综合特点,且能反映区域耕地质量变化的一般过程。     

蝉中汞含量及其分布特征研究

研究了葫芦岛氯碱-有色冶金化工区蝉汞、膜翅汞及蝉蜕汞的含量,比较了蝉与其它昆虫汞含量的差异,探讨了汞在蝉体内的分布特征.结果表明,蝉汞含量很高,平均值为2.64 mg.kg-1,远高于对照点地区蝉汞含量(平均为1.00 mg.kg-1);蝉中汞的分布特征为蝉汞膜翅汞(平均为0.98 mg.kg-1)蝉蜕(平均为0.50 mg.kg-1);不同性别蝉体质量、汞含量存在显著差异,雌性蝉体质量(平均为1.11 g)显著高于雄性(平均为0.54 g);雌性蝉汞含量(平均为1.34 mg.kg-1)要显著低于雄性汞含量(平均为3.38 mg.kg-1);不同采样点中蝉汞含量差异明显,但是膜翅汞含量差异较小;蝉汞含量与土壤汞含量之间不存在显著的相关关系.蝉汞含量低于生命周期较长的蜻蜓汞含量,但是却远高于生命周期较短的其它昆虫,反映了环境汞污染在长生命周期昆虫的累积效应.     

水源地藻类及藻毒素同时去除的效果及机制分析

利用组合载体对太湖梅梁湾水源地水体中藻类及藻毒素的同时去除试验表明:检测水源地水体中藻量、Chl-a、TMC的含量各为(31.67～78.27)×106个.L-1、32.58～102.67μg·L-1、1.79～11.97μg·L-1.在水力停留时间为7d、组合载体的密度为13.1%的条件下,组合载体AP对藻量的平均去除率达到了59.78%,对Chl-a的平均去除率达到了80.82%,对TMC-LR、TMC-RR、EMC-LR、EMC-RR的降解率最高能达到99.73%、97.10%、100%、75.44%.对其去除机制的研究表明,组合载体AP对总细菌的富集能力达到了8.3×1011～35.6×1011cells.g-1,比湖水本底值中细菌的总数高出了8～9个数量级.对除藻及藻毒素过程中的优势菌种,经过培养、分离,考察其形态、生理生化特性,利用聚合酶链反应(PCR)、16S rRNA序列分析技术,经鉴定确认该优势菌株为假单胞菌属(Pseudomonas sp.)和芽孢杆菌(Bacillussp.).组合载体AP上富集的大量微生物,它们的协同降解作用是去除藻及藻毒素的主要作用机制.